Mariana Larez

As it is known, the price of a barrel of oil in the futures market, is decreasing significantly, which, given the level of external debt, is indicative of the high exposure to insolvency that the Venezuelan economy would have over time that lasts the global financial crisis. For example, for the second quarter of 2008 the relationship reservations international/foreign debt to long term is 0.84 (34.335 thousand of dollars/40.872 thousand of dollars). I.e. for every dollar of debt in the long term there are 84 cents in international reserves, which gives account of the bad situation of solvency that has the Venezuelan economy in the long term. An ideal situation for solvency would be that for every dollar of debt, is available in two dollar reserves.

This would imply having reserves of twice the long-term external debt, (81.744 billion dollars). Or, conversely, have half of the international reserves, in debt (17.167,5 billion dollars). The pockets of Venezuelans would be affected in terms of a very possible budget cuts in the the State’s functional expenditure for the year 2009. Let us remember that the 2009 budget is calculated on the basis of $60 barrel. Up where we can anticipate, 130,000 barrels a day production cut does not contain long price drop over 60 dollars.

In addition, significant cuts in spending on security and defence, education, health, housing, infrastructure, among others, is what would be expected for the year 2009. Mariana Larez for its part pointed out, that Venezuelans must be alerts with the reduction in revenue that might come. We must understand that we don’t live in a parallel world and it seems naive to think that what happens in the United States will not influence our economy. Due to our status as monoproductor country where the economy depends on exports of oil, we will be undoubtedly affected. Estimates of specialists, predicted that with the reduction in demand expected by the crisis, the average export price level will decrease to fifty dollars per barrel.If estimates by specialists are approaching reality and bearing in mind that Venezuela has a very high level of imports, it is reasonable to think that the situation who lives the world will affect us by very shielded us.